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Post by happyhaddock on Jun 28, 2006 14:32:00 GMT -5
Some interesting numbers: - 4.00E+79 - There are at least 4x10^79 hydrogen atoms in the Universe. One in 2.10E+55 - The odds of winning seven Powerballs in a row. (The odds of winning one Powerball drawing are about one in 80 million) One in 4.00E+82 = Chance that Scott would, could, did kill Laci(That's one in 40,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 computed from the following estimates) One in | 100,000 | Scott would want to kill Laci (7 in 100,000 pregnant women are murdered, but Scott has none of the common characteristics) | One in | 1,000 | Would plan killing and start relationship with Frey | One in | 1,000 | Would plan to put body in bay and would not conceal plan (or boat purchase) carefully | One in | 1,000 | Would not take board used to make weight and dump in bay | One in | 100 | Would ask Amy Rocha for pizza | One in | 100 | Would agree to pick up basket | One in | 1,000 | Would kill day before Christmas with dinner planned for family | One in | 100 | Would go on computer at home | One in | 1,000 | Would put leash on dog- then take it off | One in | 1,000 | Would use computer at work with body in street | One in | 1,000 | Would stop at corner store on way to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would leave boat tied up at dock while parking | One in | 100 | Would use bay instead of lake or burial | One in | 1,000 | Would use boat on first trip to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would use untested boat | One in | 10,000 | No evidence at house | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in truck | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in boat | One in | 10,000 | Could sink body with 32 lb and it would not be found/spotted | One in | 10,000,000 | The twine would tie itself around body | One in | 10,000 | Baby would separate from mother | One in | 1,000 | Baby would have no animal feeding | One in | 1,000 | Baby would make it through the rocks and up on to shore | One in | 1,000 | Mother's body would make uncomputable track (according to Cheng) | One in | 4,000 | Grass on leash -- grass in 'purse' |
(added missing line)
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Post by Maggie on Jun 28, 2006 16:39:49 GMT -5
Happy, great calculations ;D
I agree 100%.
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Post by artguy on Jun 28, 2006 19:44:30 GMT -5
I'm not that great with numbers but I agree the odds are astronomical. Everything else aside, the probability of anyone committing a completely evidence-free crime of that magnitude is enormous. The prosecution’s theory requires multiple crime scenes: House, Truck, Warehouse, Boat, Bay; and, after all the resources and millions of dollars spent investigating them, not one single piece of physical evidence incriminates Scott. I don’t know how to calculate it but I’d say the possibility of Scott pulling all that off without leaving anything behind is up there with Hell freezing over and pigs flying.
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Post by happyhaddock on Jun 29, 2006 22:30:23 GMT -5
Someone has pointed out that we need to factor in the odds against the abduction and the burglary happening on the same day within feet of each other. A rough calculation seems to indicate that I must add a factor of one in 100 million to the calculation. I will have to try to figure the odds of the burglars abducting a witness who catches them in the act. Maybe one in 5? This IS California, the 'three strikes' state.
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Post by Maggie on Jun 30, 2006 11:17:41 GMT -5
Yeah Happy, CA the three strike state. Did Steve Todd get life under CA's three strike law? No he did not. Now, what are the chances that he WOULD HAVE (given his criminal record) if he didn't CO-OPERATE with the MPD???
It is my opinion that Steve Todd-- at the very least- saw Laci Peterson that morning, and they had words. It is also my opinion that Steve Todd was "encouraged" not to remember this.
We could do an entire thread on Steve Todd alone..... but I think the defense motion said it all.
maybe I'll bump the Aponte report.
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Post by happyhaddock on Jun 30, 2006 11:52:52 GMT -5
Yeah Happy, CA the three strike state. Did Steve Todd get life under CA's three strike law? No he did not. Now, what are the chances that he WOULD HAVE (given his criminal record) if he didn't CO-OPERATE with the MPD??? It is my opinion that Steve Todd-- at the very least- saw Laci Peterson that morning, and they had words. It is also my opinion that Steve Todd was "encouraged" not to remember this. We could do an entire thread on Steve Todd alone..... but I think the defense motion said it all. maybe I'll bump the Aponte report. If you can get 25 to life for stealing a slice of pizza, 50 to life for stealing a few videos from K-Mart, what do you get for a $60,000 home burglary where you steal a safe and crack it open? Why, 6 months. ROTFLMAO! I've said it before and I'll say it again, in Modesto the law is what the cops say it is. "There can be no doubt that many cops have some skills at extracting confessions from suspects - sometimes for crimes those suspects did not commit, despite the obvious fact that it is in no way to the benefit of those suspects to confess to anything at all. In fact many cops use a psychological trick to extract these confessions which has resulted in many of them being false.How much easier then is it to convince a witness that they were mistaken about what they saw or when they saw it or who they saw, that they don't want to get involved or that it may not be in their best interests to testify? And of course if tips are ignored as they so often were in this case memories become fuzzy and it becomes even easier to confuse the witnesses. Thus we see that it is easier to make evidence the cops don't like 'go away' than it is to get people to confess. We certainly know that this happened over and over again in this case. Then there was the death of one witness before she was properly questioned not to mention the 'accidental' improper hypnosis of another witness. Thus is justice denied, either by tunnel vision or malevolence."
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Post by plove360 on Jul 5, 2006 7:46:06 GMT -5
Well that guy that stole the slice of pizza also commited assualt and wasnt souly for stealing the pizza, but dont get me wrong I believe thats way over board and sadly DA's uses the 3 strikes laws and all other laws at their own desires
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Post by happyhaddock on Jul 5, 2006 12:35:39 GMT -5
Well that guy that stole the slice of pizza also commited assualt and wasnt souly for stealing the pizza, but dont get me wrong I believe thats way over board and sadly DA's uses the 3 strikes laws and all other laws at their own desires Sure. You have to wonder about the sanity of a fifty year sentence for stealing $154 worth of videos. What is that, about $2.5 million in costs? I bet if you offered K-Mart one years worth of prison costs - say $50,000 - they'd tell him to come back any time ;D
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Post by plove360 on Jul 6, 2006 7:56:58 GMT -5
Hey I agree its insane but Ca has voted on some of these laws and they have passed. I dont agree with them in the least . Seems Ca goverment would get this and help themselves get out of debt some what
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Post by happyhaddock on Jul 28, 2006 13:37:28 GMT -5
I've updated this based on suggestions and further thought: - 4.00E+79 There are at least 4x10^79 hydrogen atoms in the Universe. One in 2.10E+55 The odds of winning seven Powerballs (The 'FBI' story). One in 6.87E+94 The odds of winning twelve Powerballs. The odds of winning one Powerball drawing are about one in 80 million One in 1.00E+97 = Chance that Scott would, could and did kill Laci (The above is one in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) These odds are based on these factors: - One in | 100,000 | Scott would want to kill Laci and would do it. | One in | 1,000 | Would plan killing AND THEN start a relationship with Frey | One in | 1,000 | Would plan to put body in bay and would not conceal plan (or boat purchase) carefully | One in | 1,000 | Would not use $1 drop cloth on flat bed used to make weight(s) and dump in bay | One in | 100 | Would ask Amy Rocha over for pizza | One in | 100 | Would agree to pick up gift basket | One in | 1,000 | Would kill her the day before Christmas with dinner planned with family | One in | 100 | Would go on computer at home | One in | 1,000 | Would put leash on dog - then take it off - then tell police. | One in | 1,000 | Would use computer at warehouse with body in street - not locked in trunk | One in | 1,000 | Would stop at corner store on way to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would leave boat and body tied up at dock while parking truck | One in | 100 | Would use bay instead of lake or burial | One in | 1,000 | Would use boat on first trip to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would use untested boat | One in | 10,000 | No evidence at house | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in truck | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in boat | One in | 10,000 | Could sink body with 32 lb and it would not be found/spotted for four months and with $1 million search | One in | 10,000,000 | The twine would tie itself around body (A million men in swimming pools for a year with baby sized dolls and twine could not duplicate this and it had to occur within an hour or two of Conner's 'release') | One in | 10,000 | Baby would separate from mother (no mechanism known to medicine / science in these circumstances) | One in | 1,000 | Baby would have no animal feeding | One in | 1,000 | Baby would make it through the rocks and so far up on to shore | One in | 1,000 | Mother's body would make uncomputable track (according to Cheng) | One in | 1,000 | Grass on leash -- grass in 'purse' -- Coincidence? This was the only real 'clue' | One in | 10,000,000 | Burglary would happen within 100 houses of Laci's abduction and on same day | One in | 1,000 | Laci vanishes Dec 24th with Croton watch - Croton watch pawned days later |
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AW2B
Doin' Time
Posts: 71
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Post by AW2B on Aug 9, 2006 9:57:04 GMT -5
I've updated this based on suggestions and further thought: - 4.00E+79 There are at least 4x10^79 hydrogen atoms in the Universe. One in 2.10E+55 The odds of winning seven Powerballs (The 'FBI' story). One in 6.87E+94 The odds of winning twelve Powerballs. The odds of winning one Powerball drawing are about one in 80 million One in 1.00E+97 = Chance that Scott would, could and did kill Laci (The above is one in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) These odds are based on these factors: - One in | 100,000 | Scott would want to kill Laci and would do it. | One in | 1,000 | Would plan killing AND THEN start a relationship with Frey | One in | 1,000 | Would plan to put body in bay and would not conceal plan (or boat purchase) carefully | One in | 1,000 | Would not use $1 drop cloth on flat bed used to make weight(s) and dump in bay | One in | 100 | Would ask Amy Rocha over for pizza | One in | 100 | Would agree to pick up gift basket | One in | 1,000 | Would kill her the day before Christmas with dinner planned with family | One in | 100 | Would go on computer at home | One in | 1,000 | Would put leash on dog - then take it off - then tell police. | One in | 1,000 | Would use computer at warehouse with body in street - not locked in trunk | One in | 1,000 | Would stop at corner store on way to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would leave boat and body tied up at dock while parking truck | One in | 100 | Would use bay instead of lake or burial | One in | 1,000 | Would use boat on first trip to bay | One in | 1,000 | Would use untested boat | One in | 10,000 | No evidence at house | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in truck | One in | 10,000 | No evidence in boat | One in | 10,000 | Could sink body with 32 lb and it would not be found/spotted for four months and with $1 million search | One in | 10,000,000 | The twine would tie itself around body (A million men in swimming pools for a year with baby sized dolls and twine could not duplicate this and it had to occur within an hour or two of Conner's 'release') | One in | 10,000 | Baby would separate from mother (no mechanism known to medicine / science in these circumstances) | One in | 1,000 | Baby would have no animal feeding | One in | 1,000 | Baby would make it through the rocks and so far up on to shore | One in | 1,000 | Mother's body would make uncomputable track (according to Cheng) | One in | 1,000 | Grass on leash -- grass in 'purse' -- Coincidence? This was the only real 'clue' | One in | 10,000,000 | Burglary would happen within 100 houses of Laci's abduction and on same day | One in | 1,000 | Laci vanishes Dec 24th with Croton watch - Croton watch pawned days later |
Happyhaddock...excellent odds calculation !!!! and I agree with you 100% The odds of the burglary occurring on the same day Laci disappeared and not be related is 10,000,000 in one...that's if the burglary occurred within 100 houses of Laci..we can only imagine the odds if the burglary occurred in a house within few feet of Laci's...WOW!!!... I'm sure the odds will be a lot lower...!! I have been saying this to no avail..some people have a hard time believing that the burglars would abduct Laci...!!!!
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dove
Settlin' In
Posts: 46
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Post by dove on Aug 9, 2006 18:12:25 GMT -5
Did anyone ever think this could be a case of fetal kidnapping?
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Post by happyhaddock on Aug 9, 2006 19:52:18 GMT -5
Did anyone ever think this could be a case of fetal kidnapping? It's crossed my mind but since no proper investigation of the case was even done we may never know.
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Post by legallybrunette on Aug 11, 2006 18:26:56 GMT -5
Was any focus concentrated at any point in the investigations, on women in Scott's life who may have wanted to 'remove the marital competition' or was that angle not considered by the authorities? I would have thought in the absence of evidence directly linking Scott with the actual crimes, this would have been the obvious alternative avenue of investigation. It does sound like there was a complete fixation with the 'hubby done it' angle though.
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Post by happyhaddock on Aug 11, 2006 19:58:12 GMT -5
Was any focus concentrated at any point in the investigations, on women in Scott's life who may have wanted to 'remove the marital competition' or was that angle not considered by the authorities? I would have thought in the absence of evidence directly linking Scott with the actual crimes, this would have been the obvious alternative avenue of investigation. It does sound like there was a complete fixation with the 'hubby done it' angle though. At no time was there any thought given to the possibility of a different suspect. Brocchini set out to convict Scott, no matter what it took.
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